Policy papers

01.12.2014 | Nikita Odintsov
Ensuring the Stability of Central Asia after the 2014 Withdrawal from Afghanistan
The prospects of stability in Central Asia after the 2014 withdrawal will be influenced by the developments in Afghanistan. Yet the overall fragility of the states in the region necessitates taking preventive measures. The previous strategies of the terrorist groups in the region allow us to identify a few focal points of strategic importance which must be protected. To achieve this, it is necessary to use private military companies and return Russian border guards to Tajikistan. Also, the Collective Security Treaty Organization must prepare for possible massive security and refugee crises. The implementation of state social policies can be outsourced to NGOs, which shall refrain from any political activity.
12.11.2014 | Zoltán Egeresi
What’s next for Turkey? Lessons of the 2014 presidential elections
The 2014 Turkish presidential elections have demonstrated that Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the AKP were able to overcome their previous political crises during the last, one-year-long eventful period, and they were successful in continuing to mobilise their electorate. Erdogan’s victory at the presidential elections of 10 August 2014 may lead to the introduction of a presidential system and further centralization of power in Turkey. However, it can also be an overture for changes in the opposition. The EU has to keep being involved in Turkish domestic politics, especially in the democratization process, and support the emergence of a more plural Turkish political community.
10.10.2014 | Anes Makul
Can the European Public Block the Enlargement to the Western Balkans?
The EU enlargement has been questioned since the first enlargement round. Also, since the start of the global economic crisis, public support to further enlargement decreased significantly. Whether a turnaround in this trend will occur depends on whether there will be changes in several main dimensions. The EU and its member states, as well as the candidate and potential candidate states, need to improve their economic performances and provide opportunities and  perspective to their younger generations. The political and economic performance of the newest member states, Bulgaria, Romania, and Croatia, is a significant indicator that can shape the public opinion on further enlargement. The candidate and potential candidate states should be further encouraged and supported in their fulfilling of the accession criteria. The EU institutions and national governments should develop policies to explain to citizens the implications of further enlargement.
01.10.2014 | Tomáš Dopita
How Should We Deal with the Discrimination and Dysfunction in Bosnia and Herzegovina? Towards a New European Approach
Bosnia and Herzegovina's internal structure is regarded discriminatory and dysfunctional. The process of European integration is stalled. There is an urgent need to increase both the top-down and the bottomup pressure on the local politicians so that they would pursue the necessary reforms. The top-down pressure on politicians can be enhanced by a rationalisation of external institutional relations with Bosnia and Herzegovina, namely by the closure of the Office of the High Representative. The bottom-up pressure on the local political representatives can be improved through societal integration in everyday life. The current trend of the desintegration of common institutions and material structures needs to be countered. Societal integration should be nurtured by improving the means for common education, cargo and transport, private business and enterprise, agricultural production, and trade.
27.06.2014 | Máté Szalai
Turmoil in Egypt: a Proxy Cold War among the Gulf States?
The Arab states of the Persian Gulf have played a huge role in the unfolding developments of the Arab Spring, especially in Egypt. Based on many pieces of evidence, we can set up an analytical framework for investigating the transformations of Egyptian politics between 2011 and 2013, according to which the turmoil was basically a proxy cold war fought by Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait on one hand, and Qatar on the other. Although the Gulf agreement signed in April 2014 clearly shows the inevitability of the defeat of Qatar, Doha will remain an important player in the region, while the rebound of the Muslim Brotherhood is now unimaginable without the support of the tiny country.
Jak spojit síly lidských práv, rozvojové spolupráce a transformační zkušenosti v zahraniční politice?
Cílem nového policy paperu Ondřeje Horkého-Hlucháně je navrhnout rozpočtově neutrální řešení pro větší soulad a dopady české zahraniční politiky v oblasti zahraniční rozvojové spolupráce, lidskoprávní a transformační politiky, včetně přenosu transformačních zkušeností v obou těchto oblastech. Doporučení a jejich odůvodnění jsou vstupem pro tzv. politickou inventuru, revizi úkolů české zahraniční politiky, kterou v roce 2014 započalo nové politické vedení ministerstva zahraničních věcí.
21.05.2014 | Ondřej Ditrych
Karabakh’s Twenty Years Crisis: The EU Should Do More
Twenty years have passed since an armistice in the Nagorno Karabakh conflict was concluded. EU can and should do more to facilitate its resolution. The Union’s security interests are at stake (energy), and it can use the hitherto neglected conflict to boost credibility of its foreign and security policy (CFSP) in the context of the Ukraine crisis which additionally makes the conflict parties (Armenia, Azerbaijan) uneasy of Russia’s intentions, a fact that the EU can use to its advantage. The EU can notably mobilize its comprehensive approach to address the conflict, promote a conciliatory narrative of history and future of peaceful coexistence, and declare readiness to assume peacekeeping tasks under the CSDP.
03.12.2013 | Rudolf Fürst
Má mít Česká republika dlouhodobou strategii ve vztazích s Čínou?
Čína projevuje dosud nebývalý zájem o střední Evropu, České republice se nabízí možnost zlepšení politických kontaktů. Česká republika by měla zhodnotit svou zkušenost a začít více myslet a jednat strategicky. Zatím však ještě nebyla explicitně nastolena otázka, zda by Česká republika měla uvažovat o  kompromisní a definitivní formulaci dlouhodobé strategie: čeho v Číně chceme dosáhnout a jaké k tomu zvolit dlouhodobé prostředky.
10.06.2013 | Yury Fedorov
ABM Defense & Prospects of a New Russia-us ‘Reset’
The Obama administration recently suggested concluding a legally binding agreement on transparency that would confirm that American BMD does not pose a threat to Russia’s deterrence forces, and also concludinga framework agreement on further cutting Russian and American nuclear arsenals. The USA may be interested in reducing the tensions with Russia over the missile defense with a view to break the deadlock on a wide complexof hard security and proliferation issues, including the hot problems of nonstrategic nuclear weapons in Europe and Iran and the North Korean nuclear programs, and also to ensure Russia’s support in managing regionalcrises – these days, especially that in Syria. Moscow probably agrees that it should negotiate a legally binding agreement on transparency and confidence building measures with the USA. At the same time Russia continues in asking for legally binding guaranteesthat the US BMD is not aimed against its strategic forces as the sine qua none of any other talks and agreements on nuclear weapons with the US. The Kremlin also may propose some trilateral consultations between the USA, Russia, and Europe on BMD with a view to involve some European circles that are skeptical about the missile defense in the debate.
04.06.2013 | Ondřej Ditrych
To Catch a Fogle
The Putin regime seems to have chosen to publicly expose Ryan Fogle not simply as a “tit-for-tat” for the embarrasing release of footage by the FBI of the meetings of “illegals” detained in the U.S. (2010) with Russian diplomats, but to gesture toward domestic audiences and to humiliate the U.S. in order to weaken its position in mutual negotiations, knowing that Washington may not be in the position to retaliate.For the EU, the episode is a reminder that even in the age of cyber threats the conventional spy war is far from over.

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