Turkish Foreign Policy in the Context of the Russia-Ukraine Conflict and Eastern Mediterranean Developments
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How does the Cyprus dispute influence Türkiye’s geopolitical positioning between Russia and the West, and what implications does this carry for European and Czech security policy? In her new policy paper, Pelin Ayan Musil argues that the unresolved division of Cyprus is no longer a distant frozen conflict, but a growing strategic issue affecting NATO cohesion, European security and Türkiye’s broader alignment within the Euro-Atlantic space.
The paper shows how Türkiye has increasingly positioned itself as a “strategic swing state,” balancing relations with both Moscow and Western allies while pursuing a more autonomous and assertive foreign policy in the Eastern Mediterranean. According to the paper, the Cyprus dispute contributes to tensions with the EU, exclusion from regional energy cooperation projects and growing mistrust between Ankara and its Western partners. At the same time, recent developments, including the election of pro-reunification candidate Tufan Erhürman in Northern Cyprus and rising regional instability linked to Iran, may have opened a rare diplomatic window for renewed negotiations on the island’s reunification.
Among its recommendations, the paper calls for stronger EU and UN diplomatic engagement and, renewed support for reunification talks. Read more if you are interested in NATO cohesion, Eastern Mediterranean security dynamics, and the future trajectory of EU–Türkiye relations.
The analysis offers a timely perspective on how the Cyprus dispute increasingly shapes broader geopolitical and security developments across the Euro-Atlantic space. The link is attached above.
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