Analýzy ÚMV: Svět v proměnách 2026

OBSAH / CONTENT

Mats Braun and Kateřina Březinová: The New U.S. Approach to Trade and Partnership with the EU under Trump 2.0

Clara Carrera and Clément Steuer: Democracy Promotion and Development Policies towards the Southern Neighbourhood

Azriel Bermant: The EU and the War in Gaza: A Challenge to European Efforts to Safeguard Human Rights and Democracy

Asya Metodieva: The EU’s Dilemma Regarding the Western Balkans

Jan Švec: Pragmatismus, nebo appeasement? Přístup EU vůči Číně během ruské války na Ukrajině

Ondřej Horký-Hlucháň: Global Gateway: Co je nové, co je staré, a co to znamená pro naše postavení ve světě

Federica Cristani and Ester Herlin-Karnell: Operationalizing Intersectional Human Rights in EU External Relations: A Roadmap for the Czech Republic

Daniel Šitera: Technologická suverenita EU: Problematická výzva, nebo obrovská příležitost pro Česko?

Matúš Halás: Znovuzavedení vojenské služby jako nutná součást nové evropské bezpečnosti

INTRODUCTION THE EU AS A GLOBAL ACTOR IN A CHANGING INTERNATIONAL ORDER – IMPLICATIONS FOR THE CZECH FOREIGN POLICY

The international order is in a period of profound turbulence marked by resurging authoritarianism, geopolitical fragmentation, and persistent conflicts. Ongoing wars (such as Russia’s aggression against Ukraine) and great-power rivalry (like that between the U.S. and China) have destabilised the global landscape. Meanwhile, democracy is in retreat worldwide – 2024 saw the 19th consecutive year of decline in global freedom – as authoritarian and populist forces gain influence and openly challenge the rules-based international system. Meanwhile, the global economy is challenged by increasing protectionism and disrespect for shared rules. Multilateral norms are under strain, and progress on global challenges like climate change and development has stalled amid conflicts, pandemic aftershocks, and governance crises.

In this fraught environment, the European Union’s role as a global actor committed to a rules-based international order, democracy, the rule of law, and human rights is facing unprecedented challenges. In April 2025, the European Parliament reaffirmed the EU’s responsibility to defend these values abroad. The EP urged the use of tools such as human-rights clauses in trade agreements and the Global Human Rights Sanctions Regime (the “EU Magnitsky Act”) to uphold those values. Yet the Union’s ability to act effectively is being tested by internal divergences and external pressures. The EU’s effort to maintain unity of purpose and credibility in this changing international order will be a decisive test of its global influence.

CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR THE CZECH FOREIGN POLICY

For Czechia, these shifts in the EU’s external engagement present both challenges and opportunities. A key challenge is to stay aligned with the more assertive EU stance on the rules-based world order while managing important bilateral relationships.

At the same time, a more globally active EU offers Czechia new avenues to amplify its influence. By actively participating in EU initiatives – from supporting democratic transitions in the Eastern Neighbourhood and Western Balkans to contributing to development and security efforts in Africa or the Indo-Pacific – Czechia can advance its interests as part of a more substantial collective effort.

In sum, as the EU steps up on the world stage, Czech foreign policy can leverage this momentum: by coordinating closely with Brussels and investing in joint efforts, Czechia can help defend the values it shares with Europe and gain a more influential voice in global affairs.

→ Transatlantic Relations in the Second Trump Era: Mats Braun and Kateřina Březinová reflect on the implications of Trump’s return to office in the U.S. for the European Union. The Trump’s second presidency is a bigger challenge for the EU than the first Trump adminsitration given the urgency of contemporary EU security challenges, as well as the Trump 2 administration’s determination to change the order of international trade. The authors suggest that U.S.’s changing approach to Europe is not a shortterm deviation but a long-term change and challenge.

→ The EU and democracy in the MENA region: Clara Carrera and Clément Steuer focus on the MENA region: ongoing conflicts (Libya, Israel/Palestine), raising tensions (Algeria/Morocco), authoritarian restorations (Egypt, Tunisia) and outburst of sectarian violence (Syria) illustrate the declining ability of the European Union (EU) to secure its Southern flank. The risk is a further destabilisation of the Southern Neighbourhood, and the opportunity is for European countries torethink their development policy in the region in a more holistic way. Czechia can also use this opportunity to modernise its development policy toolkit in terms of favouring a bottom-up approach, as well as a multilateral cooperation with the recipient countries of its development aid.

→ EU divisions and policy towards Israel and the Palestinians: Azriel Bermant reflects on how there have been growing calls by individual EU member states for the imposition of sanctions against Israel. The Netanyahu government openly supports the acceleration of settlement building and even the annexation of territory in the West Bank yet the continued backing of the Trump administration for these policies hampers the EU’s ability to exert a meaningful influence in this area. In the past, Israel’s prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu has harnessed the support of Israel-friendly member states, including Czechia and Hungary, to block or weaken anti-Israel decisions. The related EU-wide divisions over policy are likely to remain and even grow.

→ The EU and the Western Balkans: Asya Metodieva examines the Western Balkans as one of the regions where the EU’s role as a democracy-promoting actor is being tested. The contribution argues that in its attempt to keep a balance between strategic stability and democratic transformation in the region, the EU is constrained (by both local elites and geopolitical shifts) and misses political opportunities for democratic changes. The Western Balkans´ case shows the EU’s core dilemma: how to reconcile geopolitical pragmatism with a genuine commitment to democratic transformation. This dilemma, nevertheless, represents an opportunity for Czechia, as Prague has been a consistent proponent of the Western Balkans’ European integration, yet not at the cost of a lack of reforms or a compromise that would harm the bloc.

→ Countering authoritarian influence: Jan Švec’s contribution examines the EU's evolving position towards China in the light of the country’s role in Russia’s war against Ukraine. While the EU has become increasingly critical of China’s supply of dual-use goods to Russia and has sanctioned several Chinese entities, it has not taken a firmer stance on this issue through more substantial sanctions or restrictions on cooperation. On the contrary, in the context of President Trump’s second term in office and the growing unpredictability of the United States, voices within the EU advocating a renewed engagement with China are reemerging. The EU’s approach to China lacks coherence and the author suggests that Czechia is particularly vulnerable to Chinese influence, given the country’s high levels of imports from China.

→ The Gateway and EU influence: Ondřej Horký-Hlucháň analyses how the EU’s Global Gateway has evolved and how it is perceived inside and outside the Union. Launched in December 2021 as a belated response to China’s Belt and Road Initiative, it pairs strong geopolitical rhetoric with doubts about whether it represents real change or is mainly a rebranding. Reviewing developments through 2025, the chapter finds a largely unchanged institutional financing architecture but a clearer geo-economic turn in messaging and, more importantly, in how projects are selected and branded under the Global Gateway. It traces the growing controversy over transparency, governance, and the verifiability of headline investment figures alongside new channels that favour proposals from European firms and national “Team Europe” constellations. It identifies the conditions for a more substantive Czech engagement, while noting the structural limits in Czech development finance and corporate capacity and offering recommendations for a more coherent Czech approach to this issue.

→ Intersectional human rights in EU external relations: Federica Cristani and Ester Herlin-Karnell propose that the EU should consider institutionalising an intersectional human-rights test across its external policies to strengthen coherence, legitimacy, and impact. This contribution suggests that incorporating gender and intersectionality can improve identification of vulnerabilities and help shape more targeted policy responses for vulnerable groups. It proposes concrete, implementable policy recommendations for EU institutions and member states, together with a focused roadmap for the Czech foreign policy. These measures aim to make EU external actions more rights-protective, while offering the Czech Republic pragmatic options for steering and scaling intersectional approaches.

→ EU technological sovereignty: Daniel Šitera examines how Czechia’s approach to the EU agenda of technological sovereignty has evolved amid Europe’s widening technological gap vis-à-vis the United States and East Asia. He argues that since 2019, the concept has served the EU as a means to both diagnose strategic dependencies and mobilise regulatory and investment instruments. The chapter shows how Czech governments have moved from an initial scepticism of the concept, centred on fears of protectionism and administrative burdens, towards a conditional acceptance of it that helped steer the EU discussion towards a “sovereign yet open” model compatible with friendshoring and a narrower targeting of the largest platforms. It stresses the opportunities created by the Chips Act and IPCEI, which are illustrated by the launch of the Czech Semiconductor Centre in Brno and the engagement of actors such as Codasip and Onsemi in the matter. At the same time, it highlights persistent dilemmas of state aid, foreign ownership, and the risk that public support may strengthen non-European control.

→ Reintroducing military service as a necessary part of the new European security: Matúš Halás discusses how European countries, in light of the return of great power rivalry in Europe, can adequately contribute to their collective defence. European countries are facing the dual challenge of the Russian military aggression in Ukraine combined with the United States gradually deprioritising European security. The chapter identifies the lack of military personnel as a key challenge for European defence. Czechia is no exception in this regard, and the author concludes that the country is incapable of ensuring a sufficient size of its armed forces without considering some form of reintroduced military service.